Early NFL Week 14 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:
Coming off of a 2-0 NFL week on these article plays (only one NFL piece last week due to Thanksgiving), it feels good to seemingly establish a rhythm with my process that’s paying off. The interesting thing I’ve been noticing with NFL betting is that, unlike where I’ve found success in college, the initial line moves at sharp books often have not been nearly as indicative of the winning side as college has been. Could just be a small sample; it could also be more line manipulation in the NFL, where bettors are moving a line initially with a half unit and then coming back later on the other side with a full unit. I’m not sure of the reasoning, but in tracking initial line moves, college has been exponentially more indicative. Something to monitor. Anyway, let’s see where my T Shoe Index indicates value at midweek with my NFL Week 14 picks.Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings (-4.5; 45.5)
We cashed an Under with Minnesota last week against Arizona, and I think I’m going back for more this week. In its last five games, Minnesota has only scored 21 points per game and allowed just 16, while Atlanta has only scored 18 and allowed 23. These offenses rank 28th (Atlanta) and 23rd (Minnesota) in TSI right now, and the defenses are 7th (Minnesota) and 19th (Atlanta), so I think this is going to be a low-scoring, special teams clinic from these two teams. TSI projects just 41.5, so I would take the Under comfortably here.NFL Week 14 Pick: Under 45.5 (Play to 44.5)
Chicago Bears (+4; 44) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Man, I know the 49ers have dealt with a variety of injuries this year, but what a disappointing season for them so far. I think they were pretty much universally-considered a top 3-4 team coming into this year, and they’re now down to 24th in TSI power ratings. They’re taking on a Bears team that seemed like it might be on “quit watch” until they played the Lions down to the wire on Thanksgiving in a game that cost coach Matt Eberflus his job for his poor clock management at the end of that game. I don’t see any way the Bears’ operation could be worse without him, so I’m not making any rating adjustments just yet. In fact, I think his firing might be the shot in the arm the Bears needed to end the season on a high note. I only project San Francisco -1.5 here, so getting north of a field goal seems like too much value to pass up, especially given the trajectories these teams might be on. Give me Da Bears and the points.NFL Week 14 Pick: Chicago Bears +4 (Play to +3)
